Consumer Insights: Planning Ahead for the New Retail Calendar

Every year, consumers are starting their seasonal shopping earlier—from back-to-school and summer-vacation prep to Halloween costumes and Holiday gifting. Each of these moments affect the retail calendar, requiring early demand forecasting, strategic inventory planning, promotional alignment and channel-specific strategies. To keep pace with the shift, retailers must respond by reworking their retail calendar, moving planning and execution cycles forward to capture demand before the peak seasons even begin—especially for the end-of-year holidays.

The Early Shopping Trend Requires Agile, Early-Stage Planning

When shoppers start early, so should you. 

To stay competitive and meet customer expectations, brands must adopt intelligent, proactive planning processes that anticipate demand well in advance. Early shopping trends require synchronized, end-to-end planning that spans product development, supply chain and merchandising. 

According to the National Retail Federation’s 2025 survey, 67% of back‑to‑school shoppers had already started buying before early July—up from 55% last year. This early-shopping trend extends beyond back-to-school. NRF also revealed 49% of consumers prep for spooky season before October, versus just 34% a decade ago. Retailers who plan early are better positioned to reduce stockouts, avoid excess inventory and deliver a seamless customer experience during high-demand periods.

AI-driven platforms enable businesses to forecast earlier and with greater accuracy by analyzing emerging trends, historical data and real-time market signals. This ensures inventory is not only available but also optimized across all channels—before peak shopping begins.

What the New Retail Calendar Means for Retail

One major reason shoppers are shopping early? Cost.

“For consumers looking to balance their budgets, strategies such as buying early to spread out purchases or shopping at discount stores are just some ways they are being mindful of costs,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said.

Between tariffs, inflation, job market volatility, etc. shoppers are now more conscious than ever about pricing. But how should retailers adapt to the new retail calendar?

• Stretch the calendar: Traditional start dates for “seasonal moments” are giving way to multi‑week or even multi‑month promotional windows. Retailers are stretching their retail calendar to start buying seasons earlier. 

• Inventory planning matters more than ever: If your products arrive too late, you lose the early shopper. If they arrive too early without demand, they take up costly space.

• Tiered promotions: Campaigns, social media, email and visual merchandising need to launch earlier to match consumer intent. The first wave of early shoppers may respond to “pre‑season” offers or loyalty exclusives. Later shoppers may need deeper discounts. Retail calendars must allow for layered offers.

• Flexibility and agility: Because consumers are spread out in their timing, retail calendars must allow for responsiveness—quick pivots, flash deals and real‑time data adjustments.

Both shoppers and retailers are now guided by a more fluid retail calendar, shaped by consumer anxieties, desire to avoid last-minute stress and the eagerness to lock in deals. For brands that get ahead of that calendar—to serve both early planners and late deciders—the opportunity is richer than ever.

In today’s rapidly shifting retail landscape, success hinges on the ability to anticipate and act—not just react. As consumers continue to shop earlier for key seasonal moments, retailers must embrace a proactive approach to planning that is rooted in precision, agility, and data-driven insights. Those who start early, align their strategies across channels, and optimize inventory and promotions ahead of the curve will be best positioned to meet customer expectations and drive growth. The retail calendar has changed—now is the time to change with it.

To learn more about how AI can help you plan earlier and with more accuracy, email us at info@7thonline.com or book a demo.